Download Choosing Safety: "A Guide to Using Probabilistic Risk by Michael V. Dr Frank PDF

By Michael V. Dr Frank

The technological age has obvious a number catastrophic and preventable mess ups, usually due to judgements that didn't safely think about protection as an element in layout and engineering. via greater than a dozen useful examples from the author�s event in nuclear strength, aerospace, and different almost certainly harmful amenities, picking security is the 1st publication to compile probabilistic hazard evaluate and selection research utilizing actual case reviews. For managers, venture leaders, engineers, scientists, and scholars, Michael V. Frank makes a speciality of equipment for making logical judgements approximately complicated engineered structures and items during which defense is a key consider layout - and the place failure could cause nice damage, damage, or loss of life.

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Additional info for Choosing Safety: "A Guide to Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis in Complex, High-Consequence Systems"

Sample text

Pivotal events can be aggravative, mitigative, protective, preventive, or benign. An aggravative event increases the severity of the end state, the frequency of reaching undesired end states, or both. A mitigative event reduces the severity of the end states. A protective event reduces the likelihood of the trigger event producing an undesired end state. A preventive event stops the end state from occurring. And a benign event has little or no effect on the course of the scenario, although the design engineers or PRA analysts may have perceived it as beneficial.

Looking into the fire event further, Level 2 (system level) would consist of, for example, inadvertent relief or drain opening. Level 3 would, for example, include events such as drain valve leak, pipe leak, relief valve leak, or drain valve failing to open. Level 4 would include such events as valve A remains open, valve C remains open, and so forth. Ultimately, a level of detail in the downward logic path will be reached such that enumerated events have the same system response. Initiating events are those for which the same pivotal events and end states would be appropriate.

An AND gate passes an output up the tree if all events immediately attached to it occur. An OR gate passes an output up the tree if one or more events immediately attached to it take place. As the name implies, FT events are usually failures or faults. An AND gate often implies components or system features that back each other up, so that if one fails the other continues to adequately perform the function. Knowledge of system success criteria, as I discussed earlier, is essential for determining the type of gate when using an FT to analyze a system.

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